Overall, the props are pretty modest for Diggs, as the betting markets are not expecting him to have a blow-up game or anything like that. He is the third-most likely player on the to score according to the odds, behind Rhamondre Stevenson and Hunter Henry, but the lines on all his props are reasonable. Before giving out our predictions, let's see how he performed relative to these numbers based on this season, including the 17 regular season and three playoff games: Overall, fading Diggs is the way to go in this game. It might feel wrong, but it is the most likely scenario in a matchup as tough as the Seahawks defense. Aside from the Rams, basically no other team was able to pa s on Seattle to end the season. Over their last 10 games, only 26% of WRs with a receiving yards line went over their number. It was Puka Nacua twice, Davante Adams in the NFC Championship game, and that was basically it. No other receiver against the Seahawks since December 1st had a receiving yards prop 30+ yards or higher and went over besides those two, who are on a different level.
Danilo Gallinari Jersey That speaks to how impre sive the Rams offense really was, and also how good this Seattle defense is. On the season, they had the best defensive DVOA in the entire , with the second-best defensive EPA/play and the third-best defensive succe s rate. Diggs, meanwhile, did have some big, 100+ yard games against the Jets (twice), Bills, Ravens and Panthers, but more often than not was kept quiet this year. That includes all three playoff games where he only averaged 24.3 receiving yards per game. All three of those games were against tough defense, but unfortunately this Seattle defense might be the stiffest test of them all. So, the unfortunate reality is that Diggs is worth fading in Super Bowl 60. The Pick: Stefon Diggs under 44.5 receiving yards (-115) DraftKings That said, one over that could be worth taking if you just want to back Diggs in some sort of way is his longest reception prop. While he only went over this number in 9/20 games this season, if you look at the last 14 regular season games specifically, that number jumps up to over 16.5 longest reception in nine of 14 games. So, he mi sed the first three games of the season working his way back from a torn ACL, and mi sed in all three playoff games. One could make the argument that the reason Diggs has been so quiet in the three playoff game is due to the fact that all three of the opposing offenses struggled so much against the Patriots defense, which meant that the Patriots offense did not need to test the opposing defenses deep. Instead, they could settle for safe, ball-control offense to win the game. That has some validity, as the Patriots three playoff opponents averaged only 8.6 points per game through three playoff games. The gue s here is that the Seahawks offense is going to put up enough points to force the Patriots to be more aggre sive on the offensive side of the ball. That brings us to Diggs and his longest reception prop. As good as the Seattle defense is, we did see them get beat deep by Puka Nacua and Davante Adams in the NFC Championship game, and Jauan Jennings went over his longest reception prop of 17.5 in the Divisional Round game against the 49ers. The Seahawks are an aggre sive defense that does an excellent job breaking up pa ses, but it is not out of the realm of po sibility that they let one deep shot slip past them, and Diggs is still capable of that even older and coming off an injury. He had five separate games with a 30+ yard reception, which makes sense as Drake Maye was one of the best deep ball pa sers in the NFL this season. He ended the season with the fifth-most 20+ air yard pa sing attempts, but the second-most completions and the second-most pa sing yards coming off 20+ air yard pa ses. The Patriots are going to need to complete some deep throws in order to keep up with Seattle, and Diggs is as good of a target as any to have one go for 17+ yards on the Patriots. Alternate Pick: Stefon Diggs over 16.5 longest reception (-118) BetMGM
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